SafePicks 2013-2014 – NFL Divisional Playoffs – Saints @ Seahawks – Preview And Prediction

New Orleans @ Seattle -8:  CenturyLink Field will be the venue for this NFC Divisional playoff matchup, when the Seahawks welcome the Saints.  The No. 6 seed 11-5 Saints head to the North West to take on the No 1 seed 13-3 Seahawks in this Divisional Round playoff.  While the Seahawks enjoyed an extra week of rest and preparation, the Saints recorded their first ever road victory in the post-season last Saturday evening as they defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 26-24.  Ironically, the last time these two teams met was during week 13 of the regular-season, and once again the Seahawks had the extra time to prepare.  Seattle produced a dominate performance following their bye week to emerge 34-7 victors.  Away from the familiar setting and home comforts of the Superdome, Drew Brees has encountered a few difficulties, throwing nine interceptions and 12 touchdowns, compared to the three interceptions and 27 touchdowns at home. In week 13, the Seahawks’ formidable defense held Brees to 147 yards. It was the first time since 2010 that Brees had failed to register over 200 yards passing in a game.  The Saints might well be tempted to once again incorporate the running attack into their game plan, after both Mark Ingram and Khirry Robinson averaged over 5.4 yards per carry against the Eagles. Darren Sproles was targeted seven times, reeling in four passes for 31 yards. Pierre Thomas missed the Eagles game and is once again listed as questionable this weekend.  Wideout Robert Meachem could also find himself centre stage, as he’ll look to expose any holes within the coverage as the Seahawks will most likely focus their attention on the physical presence of tight end Jimmy Graham and the explosive Marques Colston. With Colston and Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman matched physically and with both listed at over 6’3″  it promises to be enthralling contest between the two.  The Saints defense, minus the talent of rookie safety Kenny Vacarro (ankle), faces potentially another huge blow as standout cornerback Keenan Lewis is listed as questionable (but he stated he expects to play).  With this in mind the Saints will require a momentous effort from defensive end Cameron Jordon, who has 12.5 sacks this season, as they try to prevent Russell Wilson from establishing himself.  Running back Marshawn Lynch will be looking to improve on his figures when the two teams met back in week 13 when he was held to just 45 yards. Despite an impressive average of 4.2 yards per carry, Lynch has been held to under 50 rushing yards four times during the regular-season.  One criticism of the Seahawks is the lack of game-changing talent in the receiving core outside of Percy Harvin. With Harvin listed as doubtful, expect the Seahawks to expose the Saints’ inability to contain opposing tight ends. Zach Miller caught five passes for 86 yards and a touchdown last time out against the Saints.   Wilson has only tasted defeat once at CenturyLink Field during his first two years in the league. During that period, Wilson has thrown 31 touchdowns, rushed for two touchdowns and thrown just seven Interceptions. His best attribute is the ability the keep plays alive with his legs, while maintaining his eyes down-field before delivering an accurate pass.    While the Seahawks secondary gains most of the praise, the linebacking group should not be under estimated.  Bobby Wagner, KJ Wagner and Malcolm Smith have amassed 254 tackles and four interceptions.  The stadium in Seattle is so loud it actually registers on the richter scale at the University of Washington geology department when the crowd gets into the game. To go up there and beat the Seahawks is going to be a tall task for anybody throughout the play-offs.  The Saints are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in January and the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an SU win and the Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.  The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  The Seahawks are 12-3 ATS versus a team with a winning record and the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games. The Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games in January.  The Seahawks are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  The Favorite and the Home team are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.  The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings versus the Seahawks.  The computer gives the Seahawks a 9 pt edge in this contest.  This is not just a rematch of Week 13’s Monday night shellacking, it’s also the three-year anniversary of Marshawn Lynch’s famous monster run against the Saints in the playoffs.  The Saints struggled mightily on the road during the regular season, with all five of their losses coming away from the Superdome.  The Seahawks’ defense should be a stiffer challenge, however.  Seattle relinquishes 101.6 yards rushing per game, and has allowed a league-low four touchdowns on the ground this season.   We’ve also learned that the officiating crew will be watching this game closely, especially Seahawks’s defenders, for borderline or dirty plays that have gone undetected in the regular season.  The Seahawks defense can create some matchup issues for the Saints up front, there is no question about it.  But we expect New Orleans to slow down the Seattle pass rush with Mark Ingram and the running game to control the upbeat Brees tempo.  Expect coach Payton to use the tape from their first meeting to pull off the upset here or at least keep things interestingly close.  And let’s not forget, Sean Payton is one of the best strategists in the NFL, and no team plays better with a chip on its shoulder than the Saints. There’s no way New Orleans, which was embarrassed in Week 13 in Seattle, is going to get manhandled again.  Plus, the Saints have momentum coming off a road win versus the red-hot Eagles.  And the Seahawks were defeated on their home turf in Week 16 by the lesser Cardinals recently.  So we will put up a red flag here in favor of the Saints.  We will take the Saints with the points in what we expect to be a closer game than meets the eye.  We will also have a small play on the Over.  Seattle 27, New Orleans 23 

NFL Expert Picks For This Vegas Winner – 2013 NFL Best Bets Week 4 and Week 5

2013 NFL Best Bets from Week 4:  SEATTLE (over Houston), NEW ENGLAND (over Atlanta), and SAN DIEGO (over Dallas)… all outright winners as predicted at SafePicks.com!!!  Well, congrats to ALL SP users who cashed in with our best bets last week.  You should see our Best Bets for NFL Week 5!  Go to SafePicks.com to find out more… join free.

AND… We just love feedback! This note was in our inbox this morning 09/27 a Vegas winner…
Dear Bo @Safepicks… We have a friend who told us about your web site.  Our friend has been using your web site for years.  Honestly, we were a little skeptical about it and the other web sites out there like yours.  My husband and I arrived yesterday morning in Las Vegas for a 2 night business stay at Caesars Palace.  The plan is to gamble during our down time!

We’re amateurs here and we wanted to bet on the TNF game just for fun last night!   So we decided to go to your web site and use your free 49ers pick.  And then when I asked, you were kind enough to email me back your second pick, predicting the game to go over the total.  Our betting slip is a winner thank you!  Makes watching the games with my husband so much fun!  We’ll probably gamble the winnings away tonight in the casino Lol.  But I really wanted you to know that as soon as we get back home we are joining your web site! You did not even have to reply to me but you still did anyway!  Thanks again.

Terri-Lynn & Derrick C.
Davenport, Iowa

2013 – 2014 NFL Win Loss Predictions & Picks & Super Bowl Odds, NFL Expert Predictions

On any given Sunday, anything can and WILL happen.  It’s the National Football League after all!   Still, we analyzed every single game of the season, and we picked a winner – during boring NFL preseason play.  As a result, we have a final win-loss record for every team in the National Football League by division (along with their Super Bowl odds as of 09/01/2013).  Now, don’t bet the farm on this – we should take these predictions with a grain of salt… as several unforeseen circumstances are not factored in here.  For that, we would need a crystal ball to read the future (i.e. injuries, etc.).  But for the most part, we’re sticking with these win loss predictions, win or lose.  All for fun and fun for all.  Heck, we are almost 11 years online (at SafePicks.com) with a ton of loyal followers – so I think we know a thing or two about NFL picks & predictions.  Let’s hope some of you capitalize and we see you at SafePicks.com!  So, here we go… by division, here is our final win loss predictions for the 2013 National Football League season:

AFC West
Denver:  Overall 12-4 (Division: 5-1)  Super Bowl Odds:  5/1
Kansas City:  Overall 9-7 (Division: 5-1)  Super Bowl Odds:  50/1
San Diego:  Overall 4-12 (Division: 1-5)  Super Bowl Odds:  50/1
Oakland: Overall 2-14 (Division 1-5)  Super Bowl Odds:  250/1

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NFL Experts, Matchup Preview: 2013 NFL Week 1 – Baltimore at Denver -9, Kickoff & Pick!

I decided to post our first site post here… if you want ALL of the killer NFL picks and predictions, come visit us and good luck!

Welcome back all SP users! Another NFL season is FINALLY upon us and we’re all just chomping at the bit to get it started! The National Football League opens the much anticipated 2013 season on Thursday (Sept. 5, 2013) with an exciting match-up in Denver when the Broncos host the Super Bowl winning Ravens.  We want to wish each and every one of you a great season and we’re just happy to be back for yet another great year at SafePicks!  Okay, without much further ado, let’s get right into Week 1 – let’s go first to that exciting kickoff in Denver.

Baltimore @ Denver -9:  Sports Authority Field at Mile High will be the place for when it all goes down, the kickoff to open the 2013 NFL season.  QB Joe Flacco leads the Super Bowl champion Ravens into Denver, where Peyton Manning and the Broncos are highly touted contenders to be hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy come February.  QB Flacco will be eager to show he’s worth the $120 million contract he received in the offseason thanks to the Ravens’ title triumph over San Francisco for the Super Bowl trophy.  Now it’s a re-worked Ravens squad who will take the field, without retired defensive and emotional leader Ray Lewis, and then some, more later.  The Broncos have endured some turmoil, too, with linebacker Von Miller suspended for six games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.  Nevertheless, four-time Most Valuable Player, Peyton Manning, is widely expected to guide Denver to the playoffs as he did last year in his return from multiple neck surgeries. Now, the Broncos have waited almost eight months for their chance to avenge last season’s dramatic divisional playoff loss to a Ravens team that appears ready for the challenge this week.  Riding an 11-game winning streak and ahead by seven late in the fourth quarter, Denver appeared headed to the AFC championship game last season, until Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco connected with Jacoby Jones for a 70-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left, forcing overtime and stunning the Broncos. The Ravens went on to a 38-35 double-OT victory in which QB Flacco threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns – along with that long TD to Jones – in the playoff win.  Then that propelled them to a 28-13 win at New England the next week, and they went on to beat San Francisco 34-31 (it was also a SafePicks NFL Expert Prediction) to claim their first Super Bowl title since 2000.  And the rest is history.

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Travers Stakes 2013, SARATOGA: Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!

I just have to post this because it’s such a shame to see all the forums and pundits out there do their best to inform us, but yet they miss the mark!  In the name of winning, I thought I would write this. In addition to those forums and pundits… you should follow me:  @Safepicks.  If not, at least check out @Safepicks and see what I wrote, satisfy some curiosity — confirm the following for yourself.  I don’t tweet picks much, but when I do… well, you get the picture…

Saratoga, Travers Stakes (Saturday, Aug. 24, 2013) Race 12: 

I tweeted my feel on the on #6 horse Moreno.   2 evenings… I studied the field.  I felt the household names in the field were over-rated…. and then I used some other methods to my madness… which I won’t bore you with.   The pundits?  Well we know who they were all over – the usual suspects (favorites like Orb, etc.).

I tweeted:  do a TB of 2,3,5,6 and that… I had taken the beautiful #6 Moreno for the win.

Well what a race it was!!  Moreno almost went W2W (wire-to-wire)… I did not get the WIN – but settled for a very decent Place/Show payout!   Even better???   The TRI box came in at what?  5 – 6 – 2 for a near $2000 WIN!!!!

The most important thing… I hoped everyone that got my tweet cashed, ONLY ONE PERSON confirmed that they did.  Shame.  Yet, every forum/pundit I checked out had it WRONG.  (Which is okay too). But follow me — let’s connect as I am doing with a few in the twitter world.  Collaboration is always good when it pays!

So this is all.   GOOD LUCK HORSE PLAYERS!   Love horse racing!  Hitting WOODBINE RACETRACK this weekend for a track-side family affair!  Feel free to follow me or not – and let’s make some money together?   Again, good luck and all the best!

 

 

NFL Fantasy Football Champions Usually Avoid These: Mistakes, Pitfalls and Blunders!

To achieve NFL Fantasy Football championship glory, one must avoid as many mistakes and/or pitfalls as possible.  Most NFL Fantasy Football champions avoid mistakes.  NFL Fantasy Football is absolute fun and the object of the fun is to win it all!  But certain mistakes and/or pitfalls will only lead to a less-than-stellar league finish.  Managing an NFL Fantasy Football team is not complicated at all, championship success will only come to the team that makes the least amount of mistakes or lapses in judgement come draft day.

Every year, at SafePicks.com, I get questions regarding NFL Fantasy Football – and how to avoid making those dreaded mistakes.  Now remember, at SafePicks.com, we tailor our site content for beginners and pros by wording our site in such a way that everyone can enjoy.   In that vein, I also make myself available by email as best I can to help our users, which is a huge benefit for many of our ‘beginner’ users.  My cousin Josh just joined our NFL Fantasy league… then recently he asked me for some tips or more specifically, what mistakes should he watch out for.  So he is trying to seek out some NFL Fantasy Football tips and pointers for avoiding mistakes.   I thought it was a good question: and then I decided to post about that here.   So Josh, this is for you and anyone else looking to avoid making those mistakes when it comes to NFL Fantasy Football.

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ALERT! 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Breakout & Sleeper Candidates, Top 10 Picks By SafePicks.com

ALERT! 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Breakout & Sleeper Picks are out!  A little edge in NFL Fantasy Football always helps us at SafePicks.com!  With another exciting season of NFL Fantasy Football quickly approaching for us – the time has come to look at our Top 10, 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Breakout & Sleeper picks!  The team at SafePicks.com takes great pride in finishing tops in the last few years, both in NFL Fantasy Football (regular season and in playoffs).  The method to the madness is simple, at the SafePicks.com Website: we prognosticate and project well, we do so for a modest but hard-earned living!  This has translated into solid NFL Fantasy Football decisions for us.  Actually, half the battle in NFL Fantasy Football, aside from what all the pundits tell you, is a little knowing.  We especially love leveraging any edge to help us succeed in NFL Fantasy Football and our ‘extra-curricular’ NFL betting activities.  Although past success is never an indication of future success, we will stick with our program, (it has helped us to finish tops in the last five years) so why stop now?  SafePicks.com success is built on going with what works!

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