ALERT! 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Breakout & Sleeper Picks are out! A little edge in NFL Fantasy Football always helps us at SafePicks.com! With another exciting season of NFL Fantasy Football quickly approaching for us – the time has come to look at our Top 10, 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Breakout & Sleeper picks! The team at SafePicks.com takes great pride in finishing tops in the last few years, both in NFL Fantasy Football (regular season and in playoffs). The method to the madness is simple, at the SafePicks.com Website: we prognosticate and project well, we do so for a modest but hard-earned living! This has translated into solid NFL Fantasy Football decisions for us. Actually, half the battle in NFL Fantasy Football, aside from what all the pundits tell you, is a little knowing. We especially love leveraging any edge to help us succeed in NFL Fantasy Football and our ‘extra-curricular’ NFL betting activities. Although past success is never an indication of future success, we will stick with our program, (it has helped us to finish tops in the last five years) so why stop now? SafePicks.com success is built on going with what works!
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Now, some of our NFL Fantasy Football success can be attributed to a little luck, but the bulk of it can also be attributed to our NFL expertise and killer NFL offseason analysis. This year, there will be another crop of NFL Fantasy Sleepers and Breakout Candidates to watch out for – we even bank on that! To capitalize on them, we need to determine who they are – there are many this year (some we’ve been watching since their high school days!). See the “brief” top 10 list here in the post or better yet, please visit SafePicks.com to get the whole bigger detailed list – you won’t want to miss it! So for us at SafePicks.com, this year’s (2013) Top 10 NFL Fantasy Breakout & Sleeper Picks are:
1) Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona –SafePicks.com Pick – Breakout: He’s coming off his worst statistical season since his rookie year. So naturally, many ‘might’ consider taking a pass on him. Not us. Enter QB Carson Palmer, arguably the best QB the Cards have had since Kurt Warner in 2009? (Remember, we’re also statistical analysis guys at SafePicks.com). Now, Palmer is not great, but he is certainly an upgrade the Cardinals so desperately needed at the quarterback spot. Palmer still does possess decent passing and deep-ball capabilities. And, let’s not forget that he mustered up nearly 4000 passing yards on a bad Raiders team last year? Don’t forget too, Arizona’s new head coach Bruce Arians runs a pass-first vertical-type of schemed offense – so we expect a lot of tosses in Larry’s area code. With Palmer and Fitzgerald seen jelling during personal times off this offseason, this only bodes well for the connection. Then, with no clear cut #2 wideout to boast of on this club, then there is only one beneficiary here – in our books anyways, that is Larry Fitzgerald.
2) Danny Amendola, WR, New England – SafePicks.com Pick – Breakout: Last year, QB Tom Brady threw approximately 75% of his passes to three players that won’t be with the Patriots in Week 1, (two are off the team permanently, and one is still recovering). Losing Wes Welker gave way to the Pats acquiring Danny Amendola from the Rams. Amendola and Welker share similar characteristics: they’re quick slot receivers, with strong versatile hands, both can lineup anywhere in formation. Amendola is a flexible receiver who can do almost anything he is asked of. Now, although Amendola was injured often last season, if he stays healthy – he has breakout candidate potential! The Patriots employ one of the league’s most prolific offense, led by QB Tom Brady. It’s no secret that Brady likes to toss. With a top offense, always comes the threat of an emerging top wide receiver. We doubt tight end Rob Gronkowski will be 100% in time for Week 1, coming off back surgery. In fact, historically, back surgery has often been career-killers for players, (a different story for a different day). But for now, we will grade Amendola as a worthy candidate to get many catches and scores. All in all, we are certainly liking Amendola in this spot. Breakout alert?! Mark it down or not, but we certainly like him for depth (at the position) on our NFL Fantasy team.
3) Chris Ivory, RB, NY Jets – SafePicks.com Pick – Sleeper: RB Chris Ivory arrived via trade with the Saints this offseason. Ivory is most certainly a capable workhorse type of back who can pound the rock for extra yardage. He really did not get a fair chance at being a feature back in New Orleans since the Saints utilized a running back by committee in the last three seasons Ivory was there. Now is the chance for Chris Ivory to grab some much overdue spotlight and prove he is a downhill runner who can grind out tough yardage on first and second downs. Ivory can also be utilized well in quick-toss screen plays, racking up some healthy all-purpose yards at the same time. All indications are that Ivory will start for the Jets, a run-heavy team with a strong offensive line. The only concern with us and we will red flag it here is his health history, and his proneness to injury. If Ivory stays healthy, he could be a nice sleeper pick as a bonafide backup, hitting 1000 all-purpose yards, complimenting our NFL Fantasy team, if top-ranked options are unavailable.
4) David Wilson, RB, NYG – SafePicks.com Pick – Breakout: David Wilson has had a year to work out his kinks to head coach Tom Coughlin’s liking. Make no mistake, Wilson saw the dog house a plenty last season with his error-prone play. But this year we’re projecting a better David Wilson at back. Plus, with the departure of Ahmad Bradshaw, Wilson has the potential to be one of the league’s most explosive playmakers. Now, Wilson will probably split reps with Andre Brown. But still, Wilson has enough playmaking capabilities to make our RB-alert books – especially when in need of a capable 1st or 2nd back. If Wilson can avoid the silly mistakes that got him dog house time last season – then he is another solid breakout candidate pick of ours. And, if we gamble a little, and Wilson does prove onlookers wrong, he will get plenty of playtime, touches and scores. Definitely, he is worthy of our NFL Fantasy Football Breakout alert.
5) Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland – SafePicks.com Pick – Sleeper: With the departure of D. Heyward-Bey, Moore suddenly becomes the #1 receiving target for the Raiders. We always look for wide receivers entering their third year, as this usually provides for opportunity. We expect him to have better numbers as he indeed enters Year 3 as wide receiver. Enter QB Matt Flynn who is supposed to be an upgrade from the departed Palmer. With Flynn’s throwing capabilities, there is no reason why Moore does not get 6-7 targets per game. Flynn has already shown in the past that he can toss a ball like anyone can – Denarius Moore will be the beneficiary of that fact. Although Moore did have some digression in the tail end of last season (i.e. point production, dropped balls, etc.) he still has the ideal traits for a productive year, sleeper style! Sometimes attaining success in NFL Football involves taking an odd gamble, Moore is worth that gamble, for us at SafePicks.com anyway. We will probably consider drafting him as a 2nd or likely 3rd WR if the upper talent pool dries out – but we expect a good year from him regardless.
6) Dustin Keller, TE, Miami – SafePicks.com Pick – Sleeper: When we assess talent in terms of NFL Fantasy Football, we project point production ‘potential’. When we assess the tight end position, someone who has some good upside, and stands out as a potential sleeper candidate, it is Dustin Keller. His 2011 point production was good while his 2012 performance was not. Now, much of that can be attributed to a NY Jets offense that was just plain pitiful. Keller also had some injury issues to contend with last season. Enter Miami. Keller may enjoy the fruits of joining a Miami offense that has been re-tooled and is poised to make noise in division. We expect the Dolphins to use a more pass-heavy offense under head coach Joe Philbin this coming season. So QB Ryan Tannehill will likely turn his aerial attack up a few notches, with Keller being a part of a legit target portfolio, maybe with Keller being the 2nd target under newly acquired WR Mike Wallace. As well, judging from our sources, Keller will likely attract the first read on most plays. With not much wealth prevailing in that tight end supply channel, Keller is worthy of a sleeper look at this starting position for our Fantasy team if top tier players like Jimmy Graham, etc. become naturally unavailable.
7) Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City – SafePicks.com Pick – Sleeper: Enter the new quarterback for the Chiefs, Alex Smith. In our opinion only, Smith has lots to prove after being jettisoned from San Fran. The upside is that Smith’s new home puts him into a relationship with new (and also jettisoned) Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. Reid has a way with his quarterbacks in his tenure at Philadelphia, as history has shown us… Alex Smith won’t be any different for Reid. The smart and accurate Smith seems to be a great fit for Andy Reid’s West Coast offensive style, which is being tailored to fit Smith’s unique profile. The beauty here is that given both their background & stories, we do believe both Reid and Smith have something to prove (to the world) in their new home – this season and for seasons to come. We project Smith to accomplish a healthy 3000-3500 all purpose yards this season. We do like to take a gamble at Smith in a secondary or bench quarterback situation. For SafePicks.com, we say, sit back, and watch him prove Harbaugh and the Niners wrong as we might take him 2nd or 3rd round.
8) Darren Sproles, RB/WR, New Orleans – SafePicks.com Pick – Sleeper: He is an often-used staple in the Drew Brees captained Saints’ offense. Last year, their offensive engine was in a state of flux though thanks to several negative variables impacting the team. Yet still, Sproles led all NFL running backs with a stunning 104 targets last season. And with the departure of Chris Ivory to New York (Jets), this bodes well for the remaining cast of running backs on the Saints roster, especially Sproles. Also, the Brees-Sproles connection is one of the best in the league, both are in sync, and it will only get better because no connection employs the ‘perfectly timed’ angle routes like Brees-Sproles. Sproles should easily eclipse 1300 all purpose yards this season as a staple ‘go-to’ guy in the Saints offensive attack, making for a good backup or second RB choice. In fact, we at SafePicks.com may even draft him first round in some positional capacity.
9) Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo – SafePicks.com Pick – Breakout: The Bills #1 option at the receiver position is Stevie Johnson, beyond that – the picture is a little bit hazy. He is the only one player in franchise history to record 3 straight 1000 yard seasons. First year head coach Doug Marrone is a Sean Payton (Saints) disciple, and we all know by now how Sean Payton is as a head coach. Payton is a points-hungry and aggressive play caller. Although Marrone employed a balanced attack in college last season, he may bring some of those aggressive attack plans he learned under Payton from his days as OC with the 2006-2008 Saints. Sean Payton loves to air it out and employ an aerial offensive attack. We’re not suggesting Marrone will duplicate, but even with a 20% implementation of Payton theory, that bodes well for Johnson in terms of fantasy point-production. The only question mark that makes us use caution here is what kind of talent level will be shown at the QB position (without getting into Kolb and Manuel). But Johnson is still worth a second look for maybe a depth role at position.
10) Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis – SafePicks.com Pick – Sleeper: This is a valid sleeper candidate here in Givens. With Amendola gone, and rookie Tavon Austin joining the Rams, Givens remains a deep threat and viable option for the Rams passing game. This year, we’re expecting the Rams to go for a lot of spread it out stuff, with short catch run situations. Givens can stretch the field and can take a deep ball anytime as proven last season. Yes, we suspect that Jared Cook and Tavon Austin will get the bulk of the looks. But considering Austin is just a rookie making a splash for the first time, we like Givens in this spot as a sleeper, a 3rd deep WR or better. That’s how SafePicks.com will play him anyway.
This is our Top 10, we’re pretty confident about this list. But the BEST has yet to come – there are MORE!?? Now, what about some more NFL Fantasy Football Breakout and Sleeper candidates – the truly hidden ones, ones that are like hidden gems, the ones that suddenly become go go generators of points? Might be worth a look by visiting us at SafePicks.com (Forums) and potentially help yourself at cashing in for this year’s NFL Fantasy Football league! All the best this NFL Football season!