Reader Beware: If this post serves any purpose, it is ONLY to share with readers how I personally see COVID-19 and its impact on MY bankroll, in terms of NFL betting, NFL pools and NFL fantasy football this coming NFL season. SafePicks and myself, we are NOT in the medical profession nor do we take a side on the pandemic either way. We only exist (since 2003) because our dedication and passion has always been to WIN, for us and for our users, in our weekly NFL betting, NFL pools and NFL fantasy football ventures. Nothing more.
So the 2020 NFL Football season is an all-systems-GO with the season kicking off on September 10, 2020 in Kansas City, a season-opening Thursday night football contest. Great! Let me tell you, we have been anxiously waiting to get this party started! But one has to wonder just how great it really will be… especially if COVID-19 (or the Corona virus to some) will be a weekly impact factor, with respect to my NFL betting, NFL pools and NFL fantasy football decisions.
Whether it’s my weekly NFL football betting, NFL pools and/or NFL fantasy football contests (i.e. DFS and season-long contests), I have told myself to be wiser with my bankroll dollars this season. There will be so many more questions and thought processes to factor in, on top of everything else, this NFL football season. Plain and simple.
I just can’t seem to shake the fact that COVID-19 has ALREADY thrown a big wrench into what has been a normal NFL off-season for countless years. Aside from a cancelled preseason, with the way things have evolved in the NFL this year… COVID-19 has had a negative impact on the normalcy of your typical NFL off-season and more precisely, NFL team operations.
I know that for this coming NFL season, we will have to contend with heightened team & player fears, enormous changes to “known” weekly & game day team operating standards, the continuing virus threat, the higher risk levels, the changed locker room culture, a different player mindset & mentality, fan-less home games, and it goes on and on. These factors were NOT on the the NFL betting table in yesteryear. I guess there is a “first’ for everything.
The “NEW normal” that football programs everywhere have been forced to embrace and adapt to looks much different than the world we lived in just a season ago. We have practices and workouts where social distancing measures have to take place, where coaches and players are wearing masks, where there is no (or limited) locker room access for teams, and where daily temperature checks has become the world that we live in, at least for now in the wake of COVID-19 precautions and concerns. And the NFL came out with guidelines requiring teams to maintain the 6-foot social distancing guidelines in their locker rooms, meeting rooms, weight room and dining areas.
So COVID-19 is here to stay and you can bet anything it will have a HUGE impact on decision making and scoring outcomes this coming NFL football season. At the end of the day, COVID-19 will be a huge factor when it comes to NFL betting, NFL pools and NFL fantasy football considerations. For us here at SafePicks.com, the Corona virus will MOST certainly be factored into our weekly NFL game analysis and our NFL picks.
The Corona virus has impacted every sports league already in some way or another, and the NFL is no different. For example, the 2020 NFL fantasy football season will be different thanks to the impact of COVID-19. Even though the NFL will play this season, the league has taken extra precautions heading into this year by giving players the option to opt-out, meaning they will not play at all. They created the COVID-19 list, which is for players who test positive or are being quarantined due to contact with an infected person.
But as we all know, with NO preseason (cancelled), any amount of time away from the team can be detrimental, especially for rookies or players in a new system. And if a player is placed on that list during the season, it will mean opportunities for backups. To me, it’s a list that would drive any win-hungry coach BONKERS but the coaches are on board with the NFL COVID-19 mandate also, health & safety first! We get it.
Ideally for NFL fantasy players, you want to bank on and roster a team with few risks as possible, because roster management is everything and COVID-19 will have a HUGE impact to NFL Fantasy football this season. In total, nearly 70 players opted out of this coming NFL season, but not all of them were relevant for fantasy purposes. But for some teams, like the Chiefs, there’s offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. Although he wasn’t going to score me any fantasy points, he’s an important piece of the Chiefs’ offensive line! With him sitting out, this will arguably have an impact on Kansas City’s running backs and potentially the passing game.
Now granted, while not every player that opted out was going to help us in NFL fantasy football, their absence still makes a great overall impact on the team and in the locker room. Overall, there weren’t too many key fantasy football contributors to sit out this season. The biggest name was Chiefs running back Damien Williams. With him sitting out, we will look for rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire to step up and other Chiefs backups, including Darwin Thompson, to have a shot at fantasy relevance. I really do believe this will be the year for NFL backups, the way things are shaping up.
Now, a little bit of clarity here. Not every player on that 70-person list actually had COVID-19. For example, Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew said after being placed on this list they did not even get the virus. Minshew was placed there because he was in contact with someone who had it, and Stafford said he had a false positive.
Other players have also since been removed from the list after a brief stay on that list… for this reason or that. Then there are those players who are not even on the list before the NFL made that COVID-19 list… but were reportedly showing virus symptoms, like Ezekial Elliot, Von Miller, Brian Allen and Andrew Whitworth.
To come off that list, a player who contracted the virus must be symptom-free for at least three days, and at least 10 days must have passed since his first symptoms appeared. Others placed on that list who only came in close contact with someone with COVID-19 require a second negative test within 24 hours of a first to be cleared, then must undergo increased monitoring and eight straight days of testing.
Also, while the deadline for players to opt-out have passed, it’s still ENTIRELY possible for players to not play this season. Players can STILL opt out if they meet one of the following conditions: a new diagnosis of a high-risk condition, or a player’s family member dies, is hospitalized or otherwise moves to a medical facility because of COVID-19 or related conditions. There are many other ways to opt out. And God forbid should an uncontrolled outbreak ensue. Then what? But these unknowns kind of leaves the door wide open “to anything” for gambling purposes – NFL betting uncertainty is coming this football season. For myself, I will be very cautious before entering any “season-long” NFL fantasy leagues, AND I might even give heightened awareness to some decent backups to roster in the season… as we do predict COVID-19 will be a season-long nuisance plaguing NFL fantasy leagues and potentially over-exposed starters. But we here at SafePicks got this covered… and are ready to go!
COVID-19 is not suspect to players alone. No. Earlier in the off-season, New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton had the Corona virus, but recovered. And another NFL head coach recently contracted it, (Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson). As a result? Another high-impact performer opted out of playing in 2020 because of Pederson’s diagnosis, publicly saying “the coming season shouldn’t happen”. As such, player mindsets, the negative ones, will arguably be HUGE factors this coming NFL season with COVID-19 here to stay.
Now, Pederson, the last time we checked, was running football operations “virtually” online, while Eagles assistant head coach Duce Staley assumed Pederson’s leadership roles. This is just another example of how NFL off-season team norms are being impacted by COVID-19 in an unprecedented way!
Then you have more negative quotes from star players (OBJ) like this one: “Obviously with everything that’s going on, it doesn’t make sense why we’re trying to do this. I can understand basketball was already in the playoffs… Hooping is different than playing an 11-on-11 contact sports where there’s 80 people in a locker room. We’re not ready for football season. So why are we trying to push forward? I just feel like the season shouldn’t happen, and I’m prepared for it to not happen. And I wouldn’t mind not having it.” Again, there are quite a few NFL players where their mindsets are somewhat disturbing heading into the 2020 NFL Football season, especially for NFL football bettors like me. I guess it is hard to blame them in the wake of COVID-19.
As of now (Aug. 27, 2020), according to official NFL transactions, 40 players officially had opted out, 92 had been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and 18 had been activated off that list, including 10 this past Monday. About 2,700 players are at the NFL’s 32 training camps. From Monday, 13 of the opt-outs were offensive linemen, and 10 were defensive linemen, including nine Defensive tackles. Potential game-changing (scoring outcomes) absences.
Meanwhile, The Las Vegas Raiders became the third NFL team to ban fans in 2020. The banning of fans? Yup. It’s really happening. Never in my life of loving NFL Football did I ever think such a reality would occur, but it has. The Raiders joined New York’s Jets and Giants, who play home games at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey and announced the same thing last month – NO fans. The Raiders informed season-ticket holders of the bad news. And the Raiders’ were supposed to launch their newly touted home – Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas – for its inaugural season. That party is postponed indefinitely, suffice to say. The franchise relocated to Las Vegas from Oakland this past off-season. See the trend here? Impacts everywhere.
So a lot of impact is coming this NFL Football season all because of COVID-19. An NFL home game with no fans to support their team on the field? Crazy. Nearly every other NFL team has announced it expects to have severely reduced, socially distanced seating capacities – if permitted to play in front of any fans at all this fall. That will depend on local government (and other factors) from NFL city to city. Either way, the impact of an NFL home game (i.e. home field advantage) for any team will diminish substantially this season. With everything that is happening due to COVID-19, I will be more wiser this NFL betting season. Guaranteed.
Oh and crowd noise? The fake stuff that’s coming this season, (to compensate for missing fans)? Recently, Tampa Bay’s quarterback Tom Brady stated that while a live crowd’s noise follows the action, the fake pumped-in noise “is a very different beast”. Tom Brady says that the pumped-in crowd noise that NFL teams plan to use may be more difficult to deal with than regular road games. Brady continued, “I thought it was one of the Colts’ old tapes when they used to pump all that sound into the RCA Dome,” Brady said when asked about what it was like to play through the pumped-in crowd noise during practice. “I was telling coach Clyde that they must have pulled that out of his basement for today’s practice.”
After getting his joke in, Brady admitted that the sound was tough to face, noting that while a live crowd rises and falls with the action, the current set up has players fighting through a crowd that is going nuts all the time. “It’s something to get used to. It definitely has its challenges,” Brady said. “If that’s how loud it’s going to be, that’s going to be tough for everybody. The communication’s tough, and you don’t have a down moment. You’re screaming the whole day to people on the sideline, which is very unique to a game because normally it ebbs and flows. But with that pumped in crowd noise, it doesn’t ebb and flow — it just flows. We’re going to have to get used to that. I’m going to have to draw on my earlier days.” At the end of the day, just another potential impact of COVID-19 on the coming NFL football season.
MY PERSONAL COVID-19 BRAINSTORM.
Here I am just thinking out loud, sharing, considering COVID-19 impact factors for the 2020 NFL Football Season (NFL Betting, NFL Pools and NFL Fantasy Football):
-To me, there will be guys on the field who are breathing in each other’s faces on practically every play from tightly contested game-saving tackles to your standard offensive huddles. I can see these issues reeking havoc in the minds of players as to how to play safe while effectively overcoming these social distance challenges on the field.
-If I were a star defender, let’s say, do I value my well being or do I “get in the face” of that runner to make that game-saving tackle, just to save that precious inch? Will effort or the lack thereof be impacted? COVID-19 will potentially bring constant fear and concern, especially among the players on the field. Will lack of effort have any impact this season, who knows? Maybe not. But for me, it’s worth pondering the “psychological” impact of COVID-19 on NFL players.
-The usual NFL locker room will now become a socially distanced locker room on HIGH alert – with many medical experts referring to them as potential petri-dishes. It’s unclear if players will lift weights and workout together, whether they will shower together or even meet together for that matter. Surely there will be a new team of sanitizers deployed working overtime washing down every locker room surface in between games and even in-game. But surely COVID-19 will disrupt the standard norms of locker rooms from seasons past.
-What if there is even a tiny chance a player has an in-game temperature, a teeny respiratory health concern, or some other minuscule sign of COVID-19, even if it is a false one… most certainly precautionary action will be taken. This is why this could be the year for several backups in the NFL. If I’m a star player and I come to work with just even a slight temperature or even a hint that I might be ill or I was with someone who might be ill… I’m probably not playing. Possible game-changing absences to come?
-So that COVID-19 list is sure to expand as the season plays on and it will throw a wrench in planning and operations for NFL football teams. So those wins or scores we all hope to see may be be different come this season. Surely NFL scoring outcomes could be impacted as could my NFL betting bankroll. But, at SafePicks, we will add several extra layers of (COVID-19) team analysis this coming season to keep our winning ways in tact. Yup, since 2003, it still PAYS to get SAFE! (There’s a reason why we’re still successfully at it 17 years later, find out why at SafePicks.com.)
-I do believe those dedicated win-hungry NFL coaches will err on the side of caution and do what is best to maintain health & safety of their team as the life of NFL Football depends on it. I do believe this will have an impact on winning (and losing) in the NFL this coming season.
-This is just me. As much as I love cashing in, who can blame any NFL player prioritizing health & safety first before a Super Bowl trophy? I can’t blame him. Which is why I will be keeping my eye on the health of stud NFL players and their exposure/usage on the field.
-The home games. We already know the London games are cancelled. But typically, NFL home games had a huge impact on outcomes for the home team. With three teams not allowing any fans and most fan capacities severely reduced with socially distanced seating capacities for other teams – you can bet this will have an impact on the home games for teams. For example, New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton is known for getting animated and riling up his fans during home games, especially to help give his defense an edge. The Mercedes-Benz Superdome is one of the loudest venues for opposing teams, but I doubt the Saints home games will be of any factor this coming season, (in terms of disruptive crowd noise). Home team advantage? I believe that advantage will be next to nil this season. The estimated average decibels expected from “pumped in” fake crowd noise at the Superdome? It will be 72db. By way of comparison, in a typical fully sold-out Superdome, fans will generate an average of 122db of disruptive crowd noise. Quite the difference.
In the end, many 2020 NFL scoring outcomes, whether you’re dabbling in NFL betting or NFL pools or NFL Fantasy football, will be impacted by COVID-19. There will be so many “added” considerations and factors to juggle this year in the wake of COVID-19, but make NO mistake about it, SafePicks NFL Handicapping has it ALL covered.
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Stay covered and see you at SafePicks for the 2020 NFL Football season.
Bo Jamison,
Founder,
SafePicks.com
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