2013 NFL Fantasy Football Tips, Picks, Rankings And More..

2013 NFL Fantasy Football Tips, Picks, Rankings and More… By SafePicks.com

We’re about two months away from the 2013 NFL football season!  Bring it on!  Because we’re freaking fired up and ready for kick off of the 2013 NFL football season now!   We’re also edging closer to another awesome season of NFL fantasy football!   You just got to love NFL fantasy football!   Heck yeah, we do!!   Although, by no means are we the authority for NFL fantasy football, no.  But I think we know a thing or two about it?  Okay, you see, I can tell you in the last five years, we at SafePicks.com have participated in NFL fantasy football leagues often.  In fact, our team has been ‘good enough’ to finish in the top four in each of those five years:  finishing as champions twice, second twice, and third once.  Then, in the last four NFL fantasy playoffs we participated in, we finished 1st place twice, then 2nd twice!

Now, you might think this is unreal right?  Not really.  In terms of our NFL fantasy football playoffs win this past season, for example, we had it in the bag from the get-go, so to speak.  Our Website (SafePicks.com) clearly shows our predictions going back over a decade, and much of our NFL playoff fantasy teams were fuelled from those NFL playoff predictions at our Website.  For example, so in the last NFL fantasy playoff league we just participated in earlier this year (last season), we finished tops!   Now, if you check out our Website (SafePicks.com) you will see that we predicted Baltimore to win through the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl!   Working off of that bold NFL prediction, what did we do?  We gambled a little, and we basically selected ALL of the key contributing Baltimore players to make up our NFL playoff fantasy team.  Then, with each playoff win the Ravens chalked up, the gamble paid off, we raked in the points to finish tops after the Super Bowl!

Remember, SafePicks.com picked Baltimore to win through the playoffs and the Super Bowl last season, and those predictions helped many of us cash-in our NFL playoff bets big time!  Now on the fantasy side, working off of those same predictions (and gut-wrenching analysis) we went with key Baltimore players to make up our fantasy playoff team, for the BIG score and win!   The funny thing, we did the very same thing the year before in the NFL playoffs, (picking NY Giants to win it all in the 2011 NFL playoffs).  We had most of their key contributing players on our NFL fantasy playoff team, it paid dividends and SafePicks.com wins again!   It’s ALL there at our Website, SafePicks.com!   We can’t make this stuff up… when it’s there for the whole SP world to see!   Naturally, our user feedback has been beyond tremendous.  Call it pure skill.  Or call it luck.  Call it what you will.  But the point being, a lot of what we do in NFL fantasy football, is fuelled from what we do at SafePicks.com!   I tell you, all that hard work, that analysis, that offseason homework, and the many burnings of that midnight oil on player-by-player assessments does help us a lot in our NFL betting and NFL fantasy activities.   If you look at our Website (SafePicks.com), simply “connect the dots” and you will see why that most of our past NFL predictions – influences our winning NFL fantasy decisions too.

Now, with our 2013 NFL regular season fantasy league just around the corner, we’re gearing up for our Draft Day on Aug. 18, our NFL fantasy league is a 9-player, 14-team league, $5-digit entry fee, standard scoring setup.  Fun for one and fun for all!!!  And we so look forward to another season of exciting, edge-of-your-seat NFL fantasy football action!  Darn, we live-and-breathe NFL fantasy football at SafePicks.com… let’s get going and jump into it right now!

PLEASE keep in mind though:  our NFL fantasy football, our way – that means, there are no fantasy pundits here telling any of you what to do.  No way!   What you read here is how we approach NFL fantasy football.   We’re not fantasy gurus, but judging from our successes in NFL fantasy football in the past, we will stick to what works for us!

At the end of the day, all fantasy football managers look at different statistics & numbers when ranking fantasy players for their fantasy team rosters.  We use these same rankings to help us make decisions about who to start, what players to target in trades, free agency, and waivers, etc (although for our beginners out there, we won’t delve much into the latter areas here).   Of course, we are focused on what the players will hopefully do for us going forward and it’s just as important to see what they have done historically too. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, it’s still a relatively good indication-tool of who to draft (in a standard scoring league).

We also look for value picks in an off-round.  So for example, Tight Ends are usually drafted in later rounds, typically anyways.  But if we forecast a top-tiered Tight End like Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints), for example, to have a highly productive year, and he is available to draft in the second round, we will make an exception, deviate from our norms, and draft him as a value-added fantasy pick.  That’s just us now.  Again, we go with what works for us.   Be sure to read our SafePicks.com NFL Fantasy Tips, Strategy, And More!  Coming soon here at our SafePicks Blog.

Anyway, without much further ado, the following are our fantasy rankings, some tips and comments about “our” NFL fantasy football:

Our 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings – Top 15 Quarterbacks:

1.  Drew Brees, New Orleans

2.  Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

3.  Peyton Manning, Denver

4.  Tom Brady, New England

5.  Andrew Luck, Indianapolis

6.  Robert Griffin III, Washington

7.  Matthew Stafford, Detroit

8.  Cam Newton, Carolina

9.  Matt Ryan, Atlanta

10.  Tony Romo, Dallas

11.  Eli Manning, NY Giants

12.  Russell Wilson, Seattle

13.  Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

14.  Joe Flacco, Baltimore

15.  Andy Dalton, Cincinnati

NFL Fantasy Football Position:  Quarterback.  The “money” position is right here folks.  As for the quarterbacks, we use a lot of our research and analysis at our Website (SafePicks.com) to finalize and decide on our top 15 quarterbacks.   So we will go to our NFL fantasy football draft with this ranking order in mind.  Yes, you are more than welcome to leave your comments regarding our omissions or your grievous disagreements.   For us, the best quarterbacks to draft in our NFL fantasy league are ones that are highly productive on the field in terms of positive yards.  We like to look at the overall talent that surrounds the quarterback (i.e. offensive line, receivers, and tight ends).   We look at quarterbacks with good pocket discipline, ones with a great accurate release.  We look at offseason activities, we look at which quarterbacks will have a returning cast, and which quarterbacks will have new faces to work with.  The other thing we look for is the head coach & offensive play calling schemes.

The Saints, for example, are a type of team lead by QB Brees who can achieve 30 points a game almost weekly, simply because of the play calling and a head coach who likes to put up points.  Brees likes to spread the wealth around, and for us, we don’t care who he “goes-to” so long as he’s putting up the points.  Whereas, a team like the Niners – they might employ a more tighter & conservative approach to their offense.  One that utilizes a stronger running game along with the read option pistol offense, this could amount to lesser production at the quarterback spot.  And in fact, Colin Kaepernick did not even make our top 15, and that’s simply our opinion, (our ranking list, our way :).  Another tip, we like to draft quarterbacks that will start on any given Sunday.  That’s a given, yes.  But for example, in our standard league we’re in, we may not want to waste our quarterback first round draft pick on let’s say RG3 from Washington, what with the uncertainty surrounding his surgically repaired knee.  Now, by all accounts, he will be fine.  But we truly won’t know how effective he will be until we hit the season.   For that reason, we would rather draft the five QBs ahead of him on our list.   The top five in these fantasy rankings lists of ours (any position), we call them our Plan A fantasy draft players, then the next five are our Plan B fantasy draft players.  We like it when we’re able to go with drafting a quarterback in our Plan A scenario with an early first round pick, obviously everyone loves that.   The Plan A and Plan B approach is something we religiously use for our NFL fantasy football drafting for all positions.

Our 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings – Top 15 Running Backs:

1.  Adrian Peterson, Minnestoa

2.  Marshawn Lynch, Seattle

3.  Arian Foster, Houston

4.  Trent Richardson, Cleveland

5.  Frank Gore, San Francisco

6.  Alfred Morris, Washington

7.  Ray Rice, Baltimore

8.  Doug Martin, Tampa Bay

9.  Jamaal Charles, Kansas City

10. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia

11. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo

12. Chris Johnson, Tennessee

13. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville

14. Matt Forte, Chicago

15. Reggie Bush, Detroit

NFL Fantasy Football Position:  Running Back.  Our list of the 15 most elite running backs isn’t a very complicated one to put together.  This list is pretty much the same or near the same for most that are drafting their 2013 NFL fantasy team running back.   These are the productive closers right now in the NFL, producing the most points.  However, it may be important to note that the top tier backs are getting-on in terms of wear and age, and this might be a factor later this season.   For us, it’s all about who are the running backs who will get the most red-zone carries, the ones that will be “heavily” relied on to “punch it through” in goal line situations.   We often put more emphasis in the quarterback position, but if we’re drafting late first round, we might turn our sights on a Plan A Running Back first, if one is available.  Still, it’s no secret that the NFL is quickly becoming a pass-happy league, but backfield production is paramount to many teams’ offensive schemes in the NFL, and having a solid performing Running Back is the nucleus to having a good fantasy football team.   At least, that’s what we believe.  I can tell you, the key to any fantasy championship, like ones we’ve enjoyed, has been a result of drafting a solid running back in a standard scoring league, especially the ones that can run for BIG chunks of yards at a time.  Yes, a solid running back is a crucial staple for any fantasy football team success.  Our Plan A running backs are consistent household names, fantasy studs as we like to call them, and highly productive.   If you’re drafting second round for a Running Back, there will be some on the draft board that sit on this list and should be ripe for an immediate taking.  One should also keep their eyes on some of the up and coming rookie backs, potentially becoming full-fledged starters this season (i.e. Packers new back Lacy).

Our 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings – Top 15 Wide Receivers:

1.  Calvin Johnson, Detroit

2.  Brandon Marshall, Chicago

3.  Andre Johnson, Houston

4.  Demaryius Thomas, Denver

5.  A.J. Green, Cincinnati

6. Dez Bryant, Dallas

7.  Julio Jones, Atlanta

8.  Victor Cruz, NY Giants

9.  Roddy White, Atlanta

10.  Danny Amendola, New England

11.  Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

12.  Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona

13.  Eric Decker, Denver

14.  Wes Welker, Denver

15.  Mike Wallace, Miami

NFL Fantasy Football Position:  Wideout, Wide Receiver.   Our rankings here is based on receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in a standard scoring league setup.  Again, the NFL has turned into a passing league.  While the top quarterbacks are throwing for mega-yards almost every game, it’s not just one receiver on the team that’s reaping the rewards.  Quarterbacks are throwing a lot to multiple wide receivers, and now it’s starting to be multiple tight ends, too!  And let’s not forget about all the pass-catching running backs getting in on the action.  With our ranking list of the 15 most elite wide receivers, this one too is not very complicated to judge negatively in terms of a standard scoring fantasy league.  To us, these are the guys that will produce the most points on any given Sunday.  These are the guys who have talented passers to work with.  They are “catch happy” and rack up the points per reception numbers the most.   When drafting the Wide Receiver, we put an emphasis more on the “consistent” “go-to” performers and we are usually drafting them in the second or third round after the Running Back and Quarterback spots are secured.  There is no science to selecting our Wide Receiver.  Yet, there are so many factors we look at when choosing a fantasy Wide Receiver:  health, prior-year performance, relationship with the quarterback, receiver versus target status, and more.  There are players out there who are intentionally utilized for one thing, receptions and the yardage produced by players in that receiving position.   We again approach the draft with a Plan A and Plan B.

Our 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings – Top 15 Tight Ends:

1.  Jimmy Graham, New Orleans

2.  Jason Witten, Dallas

3.  Dennis Pitta, Baltimore

4.  Rob Gronkowski, New England

5.  Owen Daniels, Houston

6.  Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota

7.  Vernon Davis, San Francisco

8.  Antonio Gates, San Diego

9.  Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati

10.  Greg Olsen, Carolina

11.  Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit

12.  Brandon Myers, Oakland

13   Jermichael Finley, Green Bay

14.  Martellus Bennett, NYG

15.  Brent Celek, Philadelphia

NFL Fantasy Football Position:  Tight End.  Quarterbacks, running backs and even wide receivers make popular early round picks, while tight ends, (and flex players, kickers and defense/special teams) are typically reserved for the later rounds.  This is a challenging position this year, especially when deciphering where some of these players stand now in terms of health (i.e. Gronkowski).  The truth is that the tight end position is one of the toughest offensive positions to draft, because every NFL offense is different, and utilizes their tight ends in different ways depending on the offensive scheme.  Some teams use their tight ends on a more physical scale to chip and make blocks, while some teams count on their tight end for the catch and score.  Our tight ed rankings listed above is quite subjective and open to discussion, mostly based on our offseason study at SafePicks.com, along with career statistics to date.  Incredible size, athleticism, and strength is what makes the leading tight ends in the league.   In some cases, a two-tight end offensive scheme is popular amongst several NFL teams.  Some tight ends are receiving larger roles in many offenses, which may help in the consideration for drafting a dominant tight end with an early round pick.  I’m usually drafting my tight end in the third or fourth round, although two years ago we drafted Jimmy Graham in the second round right behind Drew Brees as our first round choice.  Needless to say this combination paid dividends.  Sometimes, there is too good a value to pass up if we’re faced with that situation, Jimmy Graham was one of them two years ago, (again, that is for us).

Our 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings – Top 15 Kickers:

1.  Stephen Gostkowski, New England

2.  Matt Prater, Denver

3.  Matt Bryant, Atlanta

4.  Blair Walsh, Minnesota

5.  Justin Tucker, Baltimore

6.  Robbie Gould, Chicago

7.  Phil Dawson, San Francisco

8.  Mike Nugent, Cincinnati

9.  Sebatian Janikowski, Oakland

10.  Greg Zuerlein, St. Louis

11.  David Akers, Detroit

12.  Mason Crosby, Green Bay

13. Steven Hauschka, Seattle

14. Kai Forbath, Washington

15.  Garrett Hartley, New Orleans

NFL Fantasy Football Position:  Kicker.  Although of later round importance, the Kicker is an important position to consider as well.  Consistency at kicking it through those uprights is what matters the most, the extra stuff is just the bonus points (i.e. an awesome 58 yard long field goal).   If we’re going to be on top of our NFL fantasy game, we also need to be on top of this year’s crop of kickers.   Our kicker rankings is based on a bunch of things.  We base our kicker rankings on statistics to performance to just overall consistency.  We have a great idea of what the top kickers will be, based on their past history and their team’s offense.   A conservative, play-it-safe type of head coach will utilize their kicker, more often than a coach that likes to be aggressive and try to score TDs.  But in truth, a kicker, more so than any other position in fantasy football, is all over the map when it comes to weekly scoring.   One week, a kicker might score 5 field goals and two point-after attempts, then the next week, that same kicker is scoring three point-after attempts only.  It’s frustrating often times, but that’s fantasy football.   The fact is deciding on the kicker for us is much dependent on the kind of offense the team is running, and the kind of opponents that team will face this year.  If a kicker is in the groove, we look for head coaches to capitalize on it by giving that kicker many an opportunity for points.  The other thing we consider are the hot and cold trends that may (or may not) plague kickers, the colder they get – the closer they get to being unemployed the next day!   Remember, last year’s top kicker entering the season came apart undone and ended up missing an NFL-high 14 field goals, that was David Akers.  Such a phenomenon only really happens with the kicker position, where fantasy football is concerned.   So yes, it’s nice to grab a good consistent kicker, but we simply don’t rake ourselves over the coals on it.  Usually, we will take what is left in the later rounds, and focus on building the “top-end” of our fantasy football team.

Our 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings – Top 15 Defense:

1.  San Francisco

2.  Seattle

3.  Houston

4.  Chicago

5.  Cincinnati

6.  Denver

7. Green Bay

8.  New England

9.  Tampa Bay

10.  Baltimore

11.  St. Louis

12.  Tennessee

13.  Arizona

14.  Atlanta

15.  Carolina

NFL Fantasy Football Position:  Defense.  This category should be taken with a grain of salt.  Scoring systems, more than any other position, affect the rankings of defense and/or special teams greatly.  Because, for example, in some NFL fantasy leagues, scoring systems will include contributions from special teams whereas some do not include any special teams scoring whatsoever.  In our NFL fantasy league, it’s the whole package of Defense and special teams scoring altogether (a lot easier to contend with, and we avoid the leagues that complicate the subject more).  Some fantasy football leagues will have a separate category for special teams scoring too.  So a team that scores on a kick or a punt return regularly would impact our fantasy league’s defensive team scoring, whereas in some other fantasy football leagues, special teams scoring is a category on its own.   To do the right thing here, it’s important to know how your league will score your defense.  Most fantasy football leagues don’t score defenses the exact same anyway.  Some leagues value sacks more.  Some systems lean toward fumble recoveries and interceptions, and some concentrate more on points allowed or yardage allowed.  So it’s crucial to know which scoring your league uses.  One common trait the defenses all love to have is defensive touchdowns (and special teams for the whole package in defensive scoring).  For us, we look at teams with strong pass rushers, ball hawks in the secondary, solid return men, and the ability to shut offenses down frequently.  By shutting teams down offensively, they keep their yardage/points allowed down, and they stay fresh to make big plays.   We don’t look at defenses in what they did last year as much as what we forecast them to do this year (i.e. acquisitions, offseason developments, etc.).   Last year was last year – this year is this year.  Remember, schedules are different, opponents are different, etc.  Also, what does a defense’s schedule look like this year (compared to last year)?  Will they face a couple of rookie QBs, or maybe mediocre error-prone QBs?  What about a mediocre offense?  These all makes for games with high turnover possibilities?  So many factors to consider when choosing the defense to use in a fantasy league.  But, for the most part, we will go with the candidates list above for our NFL fantasy defensive teams.   Be sure to read our SafePicks.com NFL Fantasy Tips, Strategy, And More!  All the NFL Fantasy Football Tips & Strategies we can cram in, we will.  Coming soon here at SafePicks.wordpress.com.